Saturday, October 23, 2010

Red Line Report October 2010

1 Sean Couturier C 6-4/193 Left 12/7/1992 Drummondville
2 Adam Larsson D 6-3/220 Right 11/12/1992 Skellefteå
3 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C 6-0/160 Left 4/12/1993 Red Deer
4 Gabriel Landeskög RW 6-1/201 Left 11/23/1992 Kitchener
5 Brandon Saad LW 6-2/200 Left 10/27/1992 Saginaw
6 David Musil D 6-3/191 Left 4/9/1993 Vancouver
7 Victor Rask C 6-2/194 Left 3/1/1993 Leksand
8 Ryan Murphy D 5-11/176 Right 3/31/1993 Kitchener
9 Shane McColgan RW 5-10/168 Right 1/1/1993 Kelowna
10 Seth Ambroz RW 6-3/207 Right 4/1/1993 Omaha

By Kyle Woodlief, Special to USA TODAY
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2010-10-22-chl-top-ten-prospects_N.htm
We're just a couple of weeks into the Canadian Hockey League season and U.S. high school and college play aren't underway, but already there has been some significant movement on Red Line's early season list.
But one place we don't expect to see much movement is among our Top 10 overall. This year's group is fairly well defined, and we'd be highly surprised if anyone dented the "Big Three" of Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. The only argument is over their correct order.

And even beyond those three, we fully expect all the names in our current second tier — Gabriel Landeskög, Brandon Saad, David Musil, Ryan Murphy and Victor Rask — to be gone within the top 10 overall selections.

After that is where things start to get murky – at least until some early season surprises begin to bubble up. And there have already been a few positive surprises among guys who look like they could ultimately challenge for spots in the top half of the first round: players such as Dougie Hamilton, Alex Khokhlachev and even outside longshot Mark McNeil were mere after-thoughts three months ago, but have taken significant steps in their progression and development over the summer.

Overall, however, the 2011 crop is shaping up to be a below-average group, and the grumbling has already begun among the NHL scouting fraternity. There is little to no quality depth after the top couple of guys in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League or Western Hockey League ranks, so the Ontario Hockey League will have to carry the CHL's banner this year. And this year's U.S. National Team Development Program U-18 club, while sporting several first-round candidates, does not compare favorably to last year's special group of defensemen/goalie on the back end.

But mentioning U.S. colleges, that's one area that is experiencing an up-tick after several years of being mostly a barren wasteland as far as top NHL draft picks go. Red Line's rankings currently see as many as seven prospects who could/should go in the top 100, with several who should garner first round attention.

Scouts will have to make several trips to Western Collegiate Hockey Association and Hockey East buildings, in particular. Boston University, with defenseman Adam Clendening and left wing Matt Nieto, both of whom are distinct first-round possibilities, will be a top destination. Out west, North Dakota's Dillon Simpson (son of former NHLer Craig Simpson) and Denver's Nick Shore will both command numerous viewings.

Rising

• Shane Prince (Ottawa) — Has just wowed us in three early viewings. Has been the best player on the ice for Ottawa every shift, and is collecting points by the bushelful.

• Ryan Strome (Niagara) — Had a big growth spurt over the summer. Came back much stronger and more confident, and it's showing up nightly on the scoresheet.

• Mark McNeill (Prince Albert) — Huge, raw horse has bolted from the gate better than we ever anticipated. Physical beast and putting up a lot of points. Could be a very fast riser out west, similar to Ryan Johansen last year.

• Ty Rattie (Portland) — We love his intelligent, instinctive and opportunistic play. Plus, he has better offensive puck skills than we previously gave him credit for.

• Joachim Nermark (Linköping Jr.) — In a year packed full of dynamic Swedish talent, he kind of snuck up on us. But he has been Sweden's top forward at both major international tournaments so far, and has our full attention now.

• Alex Khokhlachev (Windsor) — Wow! Sure didn't take him long to adjust to North America. He has been flying early on and having a similar impact as Alex Burmistrov had in the OHL last season.

Falling

• Matt Mahalak (Plymouth) — What happened here? It's way early, but in his first two OHL games, he has looked stiff and mechanical and is fighting every puck. Not the same guy we've seen the past two years. Desperately needs an injection of confidence.

• Scott Harrington (London) — We're starting to wonder just what style of blueliner he's going to become. Apparently, he hasn't figured it out either because he looks confused about his role.

News and notes from around the scouting community

One QMJHL player who will soon reappear on Red Line's rankings is Czech import Tomas Filippi of the Quebec Remparts. He leads all snipers in the Q with 11 goals in 12 games, and is the league's eighth leading scorer overall — and top rookie — with 11-9-20 totals.

Filippi, as one of the very few skilled players on the Czech National U-18 Team last year, stood out like a sore thumb as the squad's top line center. But his obvious offensive talent and puck skills were offset by his penchant for disappearing for long stretches of action.

At Red Line, we felt he was worthy of a late-round flier selection, in case the light bulb ever went on for him. Well, something (the NHL draft snub?) must have flicked on the power switch over the summer because the kid has not been taking many shifts off in the early going with the Remparts, and if he keeps his head into it and his intensity level up, he's sure to get picked this time around.

As mentioned in our "Rising" section, the biggest early season surprise out west, and possibly in the entire CHL, has been the rapid maturation of big power center Mark McNeill out in Prince Albert.

After scoring nine goals and carrying a minus-10 rating over 68 games last year, McNeill has come out charging this campaign, and already has 5-8-13 totals with a plus-6 rating through 12 games. Our Prince Albert-based scout has noted the startling transformation in his game, and writes, "The kid is a 6-1/210-pound pivot who just flies out there. He's playing aggressively and also has high-end skill. As of now, I would rank him among the Top 5 prospects for the 2011 draft from the WHL."

The biggest difference from last season looks to be leg strength. McNeill's dramatically improved speed and balance have led to an obvious increase in his confidence level, and his game is taking off by leaps and bounds.

We'll be monitoring his progression closely. Keeping up with the theme of pleasant early season surprises, Red Line's chief scout has been tremendously impressed with the terrific all-around game shown by Ottawa left winger Shane Prince, and nominates him as the OHL's biggest shocker. In our three viewings, he has easily been the 67s' best player on the ice in every outing — and on virtually every shift.

He has shown terrific speed and skating ability, excellent vision and playmaking skills (as his 6-12-18 line in 10 games — good for third in league scoring — shows), and a tremendous work ethic. He blocks a ton of shots on the penalty killing unit and starts dangerous rushes the other way, transitioning from defense to offense in a heartbeat.

Prince plays much bigger than his size (5-11/185), and so far, we love everything about him.